COVID-19: Hourglass - Just a matter of time
The infected cases situation as of March 19 2020
COVID-19 has taken over most of the world, affecting 176 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan), and reaching a staggering total of nearly 220,000 reported infected cases, including a rising toll close to 9,000 deaths (4%), yet roughly 85,800 recovered (39%). (*)
Here is a screenshot of the affected countries with more than 2,000 confirmed infected cases (*):
No more talking about "if", only "when" now. It is just a matter of time for the virus to cover the whole planet. And at this pace, it might just take only 1 or 2 weeks for the remaining 22 unaffected countries to also be affected by the coronavirus. Matter of fact, it will surely happen anytime soon, and there is nothing much they can do about it (unfortunately).
Here is a map of the affected countries for a better visual (*):
A brief take on the collapse of globalization and the foundations of its systems
As the spreading continues, the world is now watching in dismay the collapse of globalization and all of the social, demographic, economic, financial and political (and even religious to a certain extent) foundations of its system.
Social and demographic
People are panicking, confused and disoriented, hopelessly and powerlessly facing an unprecedented and seemingly "unstoppable" world pandemic affecting their loved ones, their life and their ways of living on a daily basis. The everyday rising death toll irrevocably adds to the growing sentiment of despair and sadness, which already existed, prior to the virus, in many countries already affected by strikes, rebellions, wars, genocides, famines, poverty, smaller-scale epidemics and mass migrations.
Panic-shopping, social distancing, quarantine and curfew have accentuated people's nervosity, anxiety and stress. Some people still have difficulties to comply with the rules that have been imposed to contain the virus and its propagation. Gun sales are up as people start to feel that the worst is yet to come and that things may turn sour and they may have to protect their family and/or defend themselves, like in a dystopian post-apocalyptic Hollywood movie.
That said, if the economy continues to fall and generate a global recession, businesses will close and people will lose their jobs, on a much, much larger scale than what we have witnessed over the past few weeks already. The actual situation will worsen and more problems will arise. More especially, if governments can't find a way to pay people salary (whether fully or partially) for them to be able to survive and pay for the things they have to pay for (fix expenses like rent and other expenses like gas, transports if any, some bills, food, kid's school too as the kids continue to have courses via video courses and conferences, etc...), then people will start to lack essential, everyday living products, very quickly, and they will start to get them by any means necessary. Fights, riots, looting and other bad behaviours will increase. And in fact, the situation might actually become very similar to an apocalyptic or post-apocalyptic movie.
We could even extrapolate and push the idea that the situation may reach a point, like in those dystopian movies, where, in addition to the lack of food and other daily essential products, the internet may no longer work, no electricity either, nor potable water, and mankind only hope is to rely on basic instincts to survive, no matter what...
Let's hope it won't get to that point...
Economic and financial
Most markets are now beyond slumping. As a consequence, global economic is plunging towards a global recession, due to a mix of different factors, ongoing for the past few years, including the Sino-American trade war, the Brexit, some unsettled and tumultuous relationships within Europe, (and also between some European countries, the Middle East and the US), the recent tariffs on European products, the ever-increasing cost of living and housing atop of high taxes and fees, as well as an overall febrile and flickering world economy, which never really recovered from the 2008 financial crisis.
All of these above in addition to various countries now being under lockdown, to try to minimise the propagation of the virus and reverse the ascending curve of the total infected cases, resulted into all deemed inessential businesses to close until further notice or even for good for some as they already declared bankruptcy. Thus creating great uncertainty in the markets and even greater fear of jobs loss, which we already started to witness, more especially in the food and beverage, service, hotel, tourism and travel industries. And we are only at the beginning of this economic and financial crisis, which may last for the next 3-6 months (at least) depriving millions of people around the globe from their jobs and means to live and survive.
In any case, this global pandemic has rapidly taken a dramatic turn and generated fear, as most countries are now inevitably facing quarantine, curfew, business closure (temporally or definitely) and will unavoidably, further than the line, end up into a general recession as a consequence of the economic and financial crisis impacting all sectors and all industries.
Political
Our political systems are no longer working. politicians and public views are more divided and opposite than ever. Left-wing and right-wing varies considerably between different countries, and at different times, but it is fair to say that over the past 10-15 years, we have witnessed both sides distancing each other by further reaching both respective far ends of the spectrum.
The right-wing is further anchored to nationalism and traditional values and inequality, even promoting extreme right ideas such as hatred, plain racism and xenophobia. While the left-wing who often values progress and egalitarianism is now also displaying some rather extreme penchants too. The center political parties are seeking a balance between the two such as with social democracy, libertarianism or regulated capitalism, yet in vain, as the ball tends to go from side to the other, from one election to the next, without finding compromising ground in the middle to satisfy most people.
It is said that democracy is dying facing the public's distrust of politicians and their governments and their often biased, unethical, immoral and even corrupted political views and orientations. Nationalism, individualism, racism, xenophobia are even more exacerbated now than they were only a few months ago prior to the virus. But this political situation has nothing to do with the virus, it is the inevitable consequence of decades of mismanagement, bad decisions, lies and corruptions, now facing the public's forms of discontent and retaliation.
And most governments, in their own respective countries, have been and still are unable to deal with the various situations and handle the reactions of their citizens, as things have been getting out of control pretty much everywhere in the last few decades. Resulting in many countries affected by massive strikes, rebellions, wars, genocides and famines, which have initiated the rising of poverty, diseases, smaller-scale epidemics and mass migrations, and are partly responsible for the surge of immigrants in the western world (despite a certain growth in the western countries and other emerging countries).
As for the worsening of this situation since the beginning of the virus outbreak, it is, even more evidently, the result of the mismanagement, nonchalant and distant attitudes, lack of concerns and understanding, lack of anticipation as well as lack of initiatives, displayed by the governments of most western countries (Europe and US in particular) over the past two and a half months. By failing to make and take time-sensitive decisions and actions, they overlooked, disregard or even strongly and blatantly ignore the gravity of the situation, despite the recommendations of the World Health Organisation.
A French-American point of view from Hong Kong
Hourglass: Just a matter of time
Unfortunately, as suggested in my illustration above, in the introduction of this post, we are helplessly and powerlessly looking at the last grains of sand (represented by the coronavirus COVID-19 instead) falling into the bottom part of an hourglass, covering the earth, sick and wearing a face mask, suffering and suffocating from being suck with the coronavirus (obviously), but also, and less apparently, from the last 250 years of man activities, since the industrial revolution, and more specifically from the last 75 years and their consequences, roughly since the end of World War II.
It is just a matter of time until things get worst than they already are, and for the whole situation to go far beyond control. It’s not going to be easy, but you have to hold on strong follow the instructions and abide by the rules to be able to survive and live afterwards.
Surely, the "before" and the "after" will be two very different worlds, in which we will have to get rid of our bad habits and learn from our mistakes made in the "before" to build and establish together a better and safer "after" (a world with daily routines and habits and overall lifestyles probably very different from those we have known until now).
Harder in Europe and the US than Asia
In fact, seeing things from Asia, more specifically Hong Kong where I live, I think it's going to be a lot harder for Europe and more especially for the US than it was for China, and overall in Asia. More especially, and understandably, due to the difference of social, political and economical environments, as well as the cultural and behavioural differences that always defined and set apart the western (occident) and the eastern world (orient).
Views about China
First, because, China, despite whatever the rest of the world can say about it, has, as soon as it was possible, imposed the lockdown of a few cities (each larger than 10 million people) with drastic measures of precaution and prevention to contain the virus and prevent from further spreading. One may say that they did not act soon enough and were not proactive enough to prevent the virus in time and avoid the present situation the world is currently in.
In their defence, I will say that they still acted and moved pretty fast for a country counting 1.4 billion people. And the lockdown of a few cities accounting for more than 50 million people in total (the equivalent of the whole population of South Korea, or even Spain, if you prefer) and the building of temporary hospitals to immediately take care of the patients without being in an excessively overwhelming situation, cannot be done in one day either. So, we can only admire and applaud their efficiency, as no other countries in the world would or could have done it that fast.
Moreover, China caught up very quickly with that mistake by imposing rules and restrictions, as well as deploying an incredible arsenal of manpower (army, police, medical staff, volunteers, etc...), vehicles, tools and technologies (such as AI, remotely controlled robots, drones, infrared cameras and other devices like modified CCTV cameras and equipped helmets and glasses for the army and police forces) to help counter the virus and its spreading by having better control of the situation and ease the screening of the people (temperatures, behaviors, travelling from/to, etc...) in all public areas.
Even Alibaba's founder, Jack Ma, has rapidly developed, with his team, various technologies and software, including coloured-coded QR codes and App systems, to fight the coronavirus, allowing people to either travel freely (Green) or not being able to enter certain places and areas (Yellow) or forbid them to access all areas and forces them to self-quarantine (Red). The QR codes assigned to the Chinese citizens indicate whether they’re at risk of contracting the new coronavirus and need to self-quarantine. Thus protecting others and limiting virus propagation.
Views from Hong Kong
Secondly, because here, in Hong Kong, for example, unlike in China, there has not been any real confinement rules or major restrictions. Or, let's say, not as drastic as they are now in France or Spain or Italy. In fact, confinement is not mandatory in Hong Kong, only wearing face masks is. Of course, like in France (or elsewhere), the Hong Kong government, as well as the various embassies and consulates, have strongly suggested that people of Hong Kong, including all expats, tourists and other visitors, should stay at home and work from home, if possible, for those who can.
Yet, for those who can't, (like me), it is the daily routine, as usual, as they have to take public transports and go to work, to the grocery store, do some errands or even meet with people, every day, except with the addition of wearing a mandatory mask, temperature control in workplaces and other public places, no rallies, no crowd movement, respecting sanitary distances, avoiding crowded places, etc ...
The Hong Kong government has passed strict instructions and rules to avoid any assembly, as well as closed most of the borders with China and requested not to travel to certain countries, mandatory quarantine for people who have been travelling from certain countries too, amongst other things. Instructions and rules, which, for the moment, so far, seem to be followed and respected.
Most HK offices were closed for a week or two (at the most) at the end of January, and early February for some companies, but since mid-February, Hong Kongers have been living, more or less, normally. Most of the shops and restaurants are still open too. And on weekends, a lot of people are outside too. They pay attention and respect the sanitary distances, of course, but there is still life outside.
Only public places such as parks and amusement parks, museums and exhibition halls as well as stadiums, playgrounds and other places dedicated to sports and other outdoors and indoors activities, as well as some cinemas and concert places, have been closed for more than a month now. In short, all gathering areas, except public transport places like MTR and bus stations, are mostly closed. Other than that, the rest is opened and life hasn't stopped completely as it has since the beginning of this week in France (and Spain and Italy the previous weeks). The military isn't on the street either, here in Hong Kong, and we don't have a curfew either. The only really stressful and complicated period for us in Hong Kong was the wind of panic, in late January, early February, for about 3 to 4 weeks, when people (like in France and the US more recently) rushed into the supermarkets to empty all the shelves of pasta, rice, canned food, toilet paper and other household cleaning products, etc... A period during which there was no longer any mask or hydroalcoholic hand lotion either.
It was hard and time-wasting to have to go during the week after work and mostly on weekends wandering around multiple supermarkets and other grocery stores to only find out that most shelves were already empty and all necessary food and household products had disappeared and won't be back for a few days, to be scavenged again by angry vultures hijacking them directly on the pallet lift prior to even touch the shelves.
However, although some things are still hard to find (some imported food and goods from Europe from example), it has been better for the past 2 or 3 weeks already. The situation in Hong Kong seems to have stabilized a little and things (in general) seem to be back to normal, or, at least, let's say closer to what they used to be before, amid a few exceptions.
Views about Europe and the US
What is distressing in this whole pandemic situation, is that the same people (Europe and USA) who mocked and criticized, barely a month ago, China, and Asia in general, are now the ones who show the most difficulties to abide with the rules, follow instructions and act accordingly to contain the virus and minimize the spreading to ameliorate the situation.
This is where and when we see and realize that Asians, in general, are much more disciplined than westerners, in general, including Europeans (Romans Latino people especially) and Americans. And this is also the reason why the situation has stabilized (more or less) in the oriental part of the world, while it now evolves more rapidly in Western Europe and the US.
And don't get me wrong, I love both Europe, more especially France where I was born (and still have most of my family and friends), and the US where I lived, worked, married a beautiful Afro-American girl, with whom I had two beautiful mixed kids and even got the US citizenship.
So, I'm not doing a French or US bashing here. I'm just upset and worried at the same time (like most people) about my parents, family and friends in general, in both countries, given the fact that I live in Hong Kong, far away from them, and after witnessing how things are going in France with the nonchalant, detached, careless and selfish reactions and attitudes, as well as the lack of civility and civism, the French government and some French people have been displaying up until 2 days ago, toward the dangerousness of the virus and the gravity of the situation, by not complying with the rules and not following the instructions, therefore endangering others and themselves at the same time.
Understand that it is very upsetting and unnerving, to think that my parents, love ones and other members of my family and friends may be infected and potentially die due to the stupidity of some oblivious selfish people, who are not careful and concerned enough to realize that they put others in danger.
I'm just hoping that people will listen and follow the rules to make things better and show to others that they want to make things better (for real).
Unfortunately, as I always say:
"The efforts of the minority are in vain if the majority does not make any!" - Domelgabor
and, also something else that I'm going to say from now on, as it directly applies to this situation of confinement, and resumes our fate in one sentence :
"The duration of our deprivation of liberty (during the confinement) will be proportional to the lack of individual civism" - Unknown
NB: Translated from the French "La durée de notre privation de liberté sera proportionnelle au manque de civism individuel"
These 2 quotes say it all for me. Meaning that great efforts have to be made to change things around, and they should be made by all, not only by a small majority if we want to succeed. And that confinement will last as long as people are not acting with civism (acting responsibly with values and sentiments of good citizenship, devotion to one's country or city: a word of late French origin, more restricted in meaning than patriotism) and civility (acting with civilized conduct or a polite act or expression toward others)
I was reading an article 2 days ago about the surge in gun purchases in the US, in recent days, which is not very reassuring. Anyway, we'll see…
As for the children
They are stressed, anxious and more especially tired of staying at home, confined in between four walls, with barely any access to the outside. It’s really no fun for them because they’ve been inside since all schools in Hong Kong closed on January 30th. At least, a large majority of the parents still have to go to work every day, so they go out and their daily lives are less gloomy or monotonous than their kids, who, for the most part, stay at home (all the time). It is already boring and depressing after a few days, so imagine after nearly 2 months.
Fortunately, I bought bikes in early February, for me and my kids. A necessary purchase which has allowed us to get some fresh air and exercise, especially on weekends (more difficult on weekdays).
To conclude this post,
I will say that it is only a matter of time for more things to unfold from this situation, good or bad, I don't know, but what I do know is that the way things will unfold, and whether they will be good or bad, only depends on you. Yes, YOU, people of the world, and how you conduct yourself on a daily basis to help and contribute to contain the virus and reduce its spreading.
The confinement, for example, is definitely a matter of time, as it will only last as long as you do not cooperate and don't make any effort to comply and abide by the rules and instructions. Cooperate, obey, comply and abide, and the confinement will probably be over sooner than expected (hopefully). If you don't, then don't be surprised if it lasts much longer than anticipated.
But know that the confinement may (will) last much longer than you think anyway. As mathematically, the self-confinement must last for 2 weeks (at least), to which you need to add another 2 weeks (10-14 days) incubation period, to really make sure you did not get infected prior being able to go out and eventually meet with people again. So, in fact, confinement should be a minimum of 25 days to really make sure. It is just a matter of necessary time spent confined long enough to save yourself and save others too. Think about that.
The spreading of the virus, same thing, is also a question of time and applying the prevention and precaution measures. If you do so, the spreading will eventually stop and decrease and the virus could be contained more rapidly. If you don't, then it's on you if some people will get infected and eventually die. Can you live with that on your conscience?
Also, if you want to reduce the spreading, stay home as requested, do not go out unnecessarily, and please stay where you currently are. Taking the decision to escape the virus by fleeing big towns to spend the confinement elsewhere in more comfortable conditions, (e.g. near the beach, at a countryside house, in a remote scenic village, etc...) may sound much better to spend 2 to 3 weeks of confinement in much better conditions, but it is how the virus is spread.
As COVID-19 is highly transmissible during the incubation period, prior to showing the first symptoms, you might be already infected without knowing it. And it is not because you do not feel it right now or even the people surrounding you seem fine and you both don't show any symptoms that you are not infected. So, by travelling away from the big cities, while you might be infected without knowing it, you might become the "patient zero" bringing the virus with you to a region where it was not present before. Consequently, think about that first, you, thinking of spending your confinement in more comfortable conditions, might endanger others.
The virus itself, same thing, as it is also a matter of time before a cure or even a vaccine is found. It will take time as vaccines, usually, can only be released after a long period of testings on animal first, then human, to check if they are suitable for humans and only comes with no or limited side effects and no consequences, prior going thru various protocols and approval administration procedures prior to being released.
Therefore, the vaccine is a matter of time too. The doctors and specialists have been talking about 12-18 months, since early January, before a vaccine can't be released to the public. Therefore, as I said it already in my previous posts on the subject (here and here and here), any news about a cure or a vaccine being released within the next 4-6 months, is to be taken with a grain of salt, as you don't want to build your hope too quickly, as you might get very disappointed and be psychologically affected.
Just know that you will surely see more hopeful news, within the next few weeks (maybe few months), about a country or another which may have made great progress on finding a vaccine or a cure for COVID-19. However, you have to realize that it is not because they found a cure or a vaccine and announced it, that they will be able to release it immediately right after the announcement. Weeks or even months may pass prior to its release. Here again, it is a matter of time.
Consequently, to cope with the time passing by during the confinement and waiting for a vaccine to be found and the sanitary crisis situation to fade away, you will have to arm yourself with patience and compliance to go through this difficult period of time. It's a hard time to pass, but it will pass. And we have to make sure that it will pass for our kids, spouses, parents, families, friends and even colleagues, not just around you, in your close vicinity, but all around the world, everywhere.
And for that, we have to be united and strong, protect ourselves and each other, put aside all of our differences and act together as citizens of the world as we are facing a global threat, which concerns us ALL. If we want to make the world a better place, we have to make a change. And first, we have to change the man in the mirror. (Thanks MJ for these lyrics)
That change will not come by waiting for it to happen on its own. It will only happen if we all do something about it. And it will not happen via technologies either. It will happen by changing our attitudes, behaviours, habits and routines. The world we will live in "after" will surely be different than the world we lived in "before". And it won't be easy to make that change and to adapt it. It will be challenging and require a strong will and understanding, as well as real desires and dreams for us to see the light of a brighter and safer tomorrow.
I'm up for the challenge, are you?
In any case, I just hope that you are well and that everything will be fine for you, your families and friends and everyone else. But remember, it is just a matter of time and the fate of the people is in your hands. Don't a f**king selfish egocentric asshole for once in your life, and think about others. Act now, or tomorrow will be too late.
To all the people in the world, I wish you all good luck, good containment (or confinement as you prefer), be kind to each other, take care of yourself, be careful and stay safe, and stay home.
To all the people of the world, keep calm, be patient, be strong, be careful, be safe.
"The efforts of the minority are in vain if the majority does not make any!" - Domelgabor
"The duration of our deprivation of liberty will be proportional to the lack of individual civism"
Thank you for reading this post,
Take good care of yourself and your loved ones and stay safe and be kind to others.
Domelgabor (& DBSN)
Sources and recommended links:
(*) Data for the text, map and screenshot sourced and courtesy of https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ March 19, 2020, at 04:55 GMT
(**) World Health Organization https://www.who.int/
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