Coronavirus: The New Invader
As the world is watching in dismay, the coronavirus, called "2019-Ncov" (2019 Novel Coronavirus) at first, then renamed "SARS-CoV-2" (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) and causing the disease now called "COVID-2019" or "COVID-19" (Coronavirus Disease 2019), is spreading around the world like an unstoppable, invincible invader.
Total number of infected cases on the rise
To this day, Feb 23, 2020 (14:45 GMT), the numbers show that 78,966 persons have been infected worldwide, predominantly in China, but also in 33 countries and territories in total (and counting...), including 2,469 deaths and 23,418 recovered. (source https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
Although, the numbers (data/statistics) and the graphs (below) show a slowing down in the rising amount of affected people, and despite a high percentage of recovery, they also show a steady and worrisome continuing increase in the number of deaths. Also, the total number of infected cases may be slowing down in China, but it is rising in other countries now.
Who are the most affected?
So far, we know that the most affected, which also constitute the majority of the deaths (so far), are people above 40 years old, and more frequently people above 65, presenting already certain pathologies and other pre-existing medical conditions, understandably making their immune system weaker and thus easy targets for the virus, as well as people unfortunately diagnosed too late due to various reasons (e.g. living alone, no relatives or friends living close by or in the vicinity, living in remote areas with limited or no access to a vehicle or public transports, etc...).
Looking at the number of people who recovered, (23,418 persons, so far), it seems that the healthier you are, with good immune system and personal hygiene, and if you follow the protective measures recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO - read them here), the more chances you have to recover from it and survive it.
In fact, this is nothing new and the same can be said for pretty much all other viruses in the world: staying healthy, eat well and proper food, exercise and be active, rest properly and having the right amount of sleep and daily nutrients every day will help in many ways, especially when facing a virus situation like this one (or any virus situation and common diseases for that matter).
As per WHO: "As with other respiratory illnesses, infection with 2019-nCoV (now called COVID-19) can cause mild symptoms including a runny nose, sore throat, cough, and fever. It can be more severe for some persons and can lead to pneumonia or breathing difficulties. More rarely, the disease can be fatal. Older people and people with pre-existing medical conditions (such as diabetes and heart disease) appear to be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with the virus."
The danger with this new coronavirus is not its virulence or fatality rate, but the rapidity of its propagation due to its high transmissibility, without being detected, during the 10-14 days incubation period prior to showing the first symptoms.
As per the doctors and specialists, the danger of this new coronavirus is not necessarily its virulence (which appear to be low for now, between 2.8% - 3.02% of fatality rate) or the fact that it is lethal for some people (some other viruses are killing much more people on yearly basis), but it is more the fact that it spreads rapidly and, more importantly, that it is transmissible during the incubation of 10-14 days prior to showing the first symptoms, which makes it dangerous and highly infectious, and somehow nearly indetectable at first. One infected person can contaminate up to 2.5 people on average, without even knowing it.
The other difficulty doctors and specialists are facing with this new coronavirus is that not only the first symptoms only appear at the end of or after the incubation of 10-14 days, but also the symptoms are not necessarily the same for everybody. Once the incubation period of 10-14 days is finished, some patients may present severe symptoms and conditions, while others may only show very mild or barely any symptoms at all (asymptomatic), making this virus difficult to detect and even more difficult to diagnose at first.
The spreading continues
The rest of the world which, until very recently, was almost laughing unconcernedly at this new threat and was looking at this virus, like a new "Chinese" thing, far and away from their own respective countries, is now panicking and fearing the worst, being at the mercy of this new invader, seemingly unstoppable, spreading fast and now propagating to the 4 corners of the world.
33 countries, territories and conveyances have now reported infected cases and probably more countries will announce more cases within the next following days, as the incubation period of the people who might have been infected within the last 2 to 3 weeks, and may have returned to their country of origin or elsewhere, is coming to an end, meaning that people will surely start to show symptoms and be diagnosed as infected in the few upcoming days.
The situation is not looking good at all in Italy for example and it would not be surprising to see an outburst of infected cases within those days.
The 33 locations of the confirmed COVID-19 cases are (for now and by alphabetical order):
Australia
Belgium
Cambodia
Canada
China
Egypt
Finland
France
Germany
Hong Kong
India
Iran
Israel
Italy
Japan
Lebanon
Macau
Malaysia
Nepal
Philippines
Russia
Singapore
Spain
Sri Lanka
Sweden
Taiwan
Thailand
South Korea
United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom
United States
Vietnam
Europe's rising fear and anxiety, as well as panic and concerns
Laugher and bad jokes which were still present only a few days ago in most countries of Europe have been replaced by rising fear and anxiety, as well as panic and concerns, and even harassment and denigration of Asian people in general. In London and Paris, for example, every "Asian" is an infected Chinese who came straight from Wuhan for most European white Caucasians nowadays.
Europeans now fear and panic, as, in Italy, the situation has worsened over the past 2 days, with a sudden increase of 55 cases announced today (Feb 23), making it the 4th country with the most reported infected cases, after China, South Korea and Japan. And surely more infected cases to come as it is probably only the beginning. I may be wrong, but I do not think so, as the situation in Italy is not looking good, and sudden outbursts in the next coming days would not be surprising.
On the news today, they said that the Italian government is under pressure to find out who is patient zero (the person who affected the others) and to understand how one of the affected person, an elderly person who did not travel recently and did not even move from the village he resides in, could have been affected and contracted the virus, and eventually may have contaminated others.
There are speculations about a few people he may have been in contact with and who could have passed on the virus to him. Apparently, and more especially, one person who may have been in contact with a colleague of his who just came back from a trip to China late January. That person is said to have had dinner in a restaurant with at least 4 or 5 people and even participated in a Marathon early February. Meaning that probably more people have been infected, and, as the period of incubation of 10-14 days has passed, which somehow explains the sudden surge of today (Feb 23), new cases will surely appear within the next few days, in Italy, but also elsewhere in the neighbouring countries in Europe.
What do the official numbers of reported cases mean?
It is important to remind people (in general) of the fact that, despite all the efforts of all the people involved in the world bringing as much help, transparency and cooperation with the coronavirus situation, it is really difficult to see the whole picture and, consequently, to know exactly the full extent of the situation in China and now in other countries as well (Korea, Japan, Italy, Singapore, Hong Kong, etc...).
The official number of reported cases only represent the people who have been clinically diagnosed and/or hospitalized, meaning only a part of the infected population. Understandably, it certainly does not include ALL the infected people. They are for example 76,940 reported cases in China (as of today Feb 23 at 14:45 GMT), but it is a fact that at least 200,000 other people are under surveillance and suspected to have been potentially infected, and are not parts of the official reported cases yet.
Same in Italy, there are 55 cases reported for now (Feb 23), but a thousand more may have been infected and numbers may increase drastically within the next few days. Just imagine if the speculations about the infected person who did a marathon are true and founded, hundreds may have been in contact with him and affected that day (via skin contacts as well as droplets of sweat, spit, water, etc...).
The coronavirus is spreading and there is nothing we can do about it
As the world is watching in dismay, the coronavirus, "SARS-CoV-2" (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) and its disease "COVID-2019" (Coronavirus Disease 2019), is spreading around the world like an unstoppable, invincible invader, and there is nothing we can do about it for now, except following the WHO (World Health Organisation) recommendations (find them here https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public).
Doctors and specialists are saying that a cure or a vaccine won't be found or won't be available for another 14-18 months up to more than 2 years maybe. In the meantime, the virus will spread in more countries, affecting more people and causing more deaths. But we have no other choice, but to accept this fact and try to protect ourselves the best we can. Maybe our only choice is that we will have to adapt and accept that a highly infectious and highly transmissible virus is now among us and part of our everyday life (at least until a cure or a vaccine is found).
Acceptation, adaptation, evolution and a different way of living our everyday life might be needed in the near future
Humans have previously adapted to other deadly viruses that are now part of our daily life, like the common flu, influenza and HIV (which cause AIDS), for example, or even Ebola (read this article of 2016 about the 9 deadliest viruses on earth https://www.livescience.com/56598-deadliest-viruses-on-earth.html).
At first, like for this coronavirus, people were scared about the other viruses, but, with time and because no cure or vaccine has been found for some of them, people (unwillingly, but with no other choice) started to get used to these viruses, resign themselves to accept to live with them, changed their habits and adapted their everyday life and routines to avoid being affected.
And maybe, if a cure or a vaccine cannot be found for the coronavirus, or if it takes longer than 2 years to find one, this is undoubtedly what we will have to do with this new virus too. We will have, consequently, to accept and manage to live, co-exist more exactly, with this new coronavirus around (at least for the next 2 years or longer until a vaccine is found). We definitely will have to adapt and change our habits and our daily routines, be more cautious on how we do things, with who and where, and maybe change our vision of how we live life itself altogether (by saying that some classic Sci-fi books and movies come back to mind... sigh).
I really hope not, but maybe in the very near future, we may have to live by the following rules to survive:
constantly wear protective masks N95 or N99
wear protective goggles
have no more or fewer contacts with others
have less gathering in confined or crowded places
avoid public places and areas as much as necessary
no more checking hands
no more kissing on the chicks to say hello or goodbye
avoid touching bars and handles in public areas and transports
using more hand sanitizer and disinfectant products
maybe eventually wear gloves at all time outside the house
maybe also wear pants and long sleeves shirt or T-shirts to avoid skin contact
get used to having our temperature taken everywhere we go
Who knows? Yet, all of the above rules are already been implemented in a lot of countries (and more to come as the virus spreads), in some places like in Hong Kong (where I live), people have already experienced other viruses, like SARS in 2003, and are somehow more prepared and used to these rules... But how people in other countries will react to these rules? And more importantly, would these rules be drastic enough if the situation worsens?... In the long run, we may have to wear virus protective coverall suit (hooded and booted)... sigh... (I really hope we won't get that far...). In any case, whatever happens, better prepared and safe than sorry.
In the meantime, be safe and protect yourself, be responsible for yourself and others, don't take unnecessary risks or actions, and protect your family as much as you can.
As I said above, facing the eventuality that a cure or a vaccine might take another 2 years prior to being found or be available, or might not be found at all, we may, once again, be forced to adapt and accept the fact that a new dangerous virus has to be added to the list of some of the deadliest viruses on earth (Marburg, Ebola, HIV, Hantavirus, Lassa, Rabies, Smallpox, Dengue and Influenza), and that we have to live with it. No choice.
Are people willing to change for the better?
It is important to understand the gravity of the situation and the fact that we may have to completely change our habits, daily routines and ways of living to survive this new virus (this new one and the others too), but will people be willing to change?
Not an easy task. More especially knowing that despite the fact that scientists have been trying to warn us about the signs and the eventual consequences of our actions, by repeating the message that we need to change things for the past 30 years, humans have not changed a bit. Politic, religion, power and money are still what drives the world and the mind of people.
And, so far, the efforts of the minority in their tentatives to change things for the better and make the world a better place have been crushed and reduced to nothing by the lack of efforts and the seemingly unconcerned, distant, doubtful and sceptical attitudes from the majority.
The last 2 decades have shown how tremendously difficult it is for people to face and change their bad habits and routines to counter other current problems, like the climate changes and its consequences, the pollution of the air, water and ground, the ever-increasing population, the corrupt politicians, the rising of the temperatures, the fall of democracy, the recent surge of protests, strikes, rebellions or even insurrections occurring in some countries, the gap between the rich and the poor (getting poorer), the difficulty for more people to make ends meet, wars, famines, genocides, natural disasters, etc, etc....
It was already a difficult and challenging world to live in, until now, this virus might make it even harder to live in.
While waiting for a cure or vaccine to be found and made available, probably not for the next 2 years, as per the doctors and specialists, (during which the virus will continue to spread), I wish you good luck and be safe, take good care of yourself and your families, relatives and friends, and let's hope they will find a vaccine or a cure very soon (or at least sooner than expected).
My thoughts and wishes of health and safety go to my wife's family and my family and friends in France and in the US, also in UK, Italy and Spain and everywhere else in the world, as well as to all the people who will be affected by this seemingly uncontrollable virus situation, hoping all of you won't get infected by this new invader.
Domelgabor and DBSN for the illustrations.
Sources:
Make sure to check the following 2 websites regularly for info and updates on the coronavirus situation:
Numbers, Data and Statistics: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
World Health Organization: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
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