Early this year, the news came like a slap in the face. A new virus was spreading from China. Its name is "2019-nCov" a short name for "2019 novel coronavirus" discovered late 2019.
What is a novel coronavirus?
Coronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans.
The genesis of the virus
The Wuhan virus has been named "2019-nCoV" as the virus was discovered in 2019. Apparently, as early as November 2019, and the first cases of contamination appeared early December 2019 in the city of Wuhan, in the province of Hubei, central China. Yet, it was only officially first reported from Wuhan on December 31st. The team of doctors who discovered the virus and acted as whistleblowers to aware the public via social networks were arrested, at first, for divulging what the government thought was false information, prior to being released later on, after official confirmation and announcement of the virus.
Despite earlier proof that the virus was transmissible from human to human (hospital staff in Wuhan started to get infected from patients in December), and despite suspicions that it was transmissible during the 10-14 days incubation period (prior to showing the first symptoms), these two important points were not mentioned in the official report of December 31st. They only surfaced around January 15.
In fact, not many details transpired from China until mid-January. Which means that the virus had roughly been around for already 4-5 weeks during which no information filtered out of China (or even Wuhan) and people, who did not know or realized yet that they were infected, unknowingly contaminated others prior to having the first symptoms, involuntarily initiating the spreading.
Moreover, and to be more specific, out of the info sporadically released by China between Jan 15 and Jan 20, nothing was really clear or even confirmed by the Chinese government and/or the Chinese Health authorities until January 22nd, which explains why most statistics (like the one below) do not start until January 22nd or even the 23rd.
In short and to recap the beginning of the coronavirus story, (as per various sources), it seems that:
Some doctors in China knew, discovered and/or were studying the first case of the disease/virus as early as late November 2019, but could not identify what it was yet.
They were aware of and observing a cluster of people affected by pneumonia caused by the disease/virus, as early as mid-December 2019.
Yet, they only reported that cluster of cases of pneumonia on December 31st, stating it was associated with the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, Hubei Province, and probably came from the consumption of seafood or exotic animals like bats (which happens to be a delicacy in this region of China), yet without being really able to confirm the primary source of the virus and where or how the contamination started.
Chinese Health Authorities only confirmed that this cluster of cases of pneumonia was associated with a novel coronavirus, named "2019-nCoV", on January 7, 2020.
And despite the belief that the first cases were originally reported to be associated with exposure to animals or consumption of food at the seafood market in Wuhan, infection/contamination data clearly indicated that person-to-person transmission of 2019-nCoV was occurring and had occurred for the past few weeks already (meaning as early as mid-December), leaving plenty of time for the virus to spread around, yet nothing was officially confirmed, reported or stated until January 14 or 15 (depending on the source).
As for what happened next, (the rest of the story), you know it already, as it was well covered by the press from around the world, and the spreading is still ongoing as I write these lines and the virus is far from being contained yet.
However, to try to recap some dates and numbers until today, here are some screenshots with data and statistics (courtesy of https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ )
Some reasons for the virus exponential growth in China
As you can see (on the screenshot above) the number of cases is quite high, as the virus spread quite rapidly and exponentially over the last 3-4 weeks, reaching over 21 countries, yet with roughly 99% of the cases principally in China (70% in Wuhan). This fast exponential growth in China can be attributed to various factors, including but limited to the following ones:
More than 4 weeks passed between the first case and the first reported cluster of pneumonia associated to the virus, which led to infected people unknowingly affecting others and plenty of time for the virus to spread around.
The "then-unknown" fact that the virus was transmissible during the 10-14 days incubation period, prior to the first symptoms, played a major role in the rapid progress of the contamination and the extent of its propagation at the very beginning. More especially that this fact was not clear nor confirmed or officialized until mid-January. Consequently, the epidemic was already ongoing, in Wuhan, since mid-December without the government officials and/or the doctors announcing it officially (except a few early whistleblowers who were rapidly silenced) and/or the public really being informed or made fully aware of it.
Even if apparently too late, and/or not put in place rapidly enough for some people, drastic measures and actions were taken by the Chinese government and the Chinese Health Authorities to put Wuhan and the province of Hubei under quarantine in an attempt to contain the virus within the area of the virus epicentre at first, to limit the propagation and thus try to protect the neighbouring provinces and regions. Yet, the virus had time to propagate to other cities, provinces and regions, rapidly resulting in not only 1 city put in quarantine, but 3, then 12 cities lockdown, under the control of the army, blocking and controlling all inhabitant's movements. A total of more than 50 millions people restricted or unable to leave and/or travel to other regions or even countries. A decision contested by many and judged too drastic but necessary nevertheless.
CNY: (bad timing?) if someone would have wanted to leak a virus intentionally/in purpose to quickly spread around with ramifications and affect the maximum of people, it could not have been done at a better time than on the eve of the Chinese New Year (not implying anything, I'm just saying). The number of people travelling back and forth, from and to China (and other parts of Asia) prior to and during this holiday season (roughly from January 25th to February 8th) is mindblowing and evidently contributed to the spreading. The incubation period being 10-14 days, we should start seeing the resulting surge of the number of cases increasing now (or within these next few days).
We will see. Time will tell. Yet, in the meantime, you can check the latest updated number of cases at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Misinformation and rumours
Actually, talking about "implying something", the last few weeks sparked a lot of controversial opinions and theories, even conspiracy theories, expressed in a countless amount of articles about "where the coronavirus comes from?" (Has the virus leaked from the laboratory of virology in Wuhan? for example) and also about "what is the real extent of the situation in China?" (Could there be much more casualties than officials want to say? for example). As there is no clear evidence and no other confirmed nor official info whatsoever, aside from the info sporadically released by China since January 7, it definitely leaves a lot of room for people to speculate and imagine the worst.
Some say the official numbers of cases reported are far below the real numbers of contaminated cases, and that the situation is far worst in China than what Chinese officials want to say. For example, the official number of cases is around 40,000 today, but it is said that more than 150,000 people in China are actually under surveillance as potentially infected, but this high number has neither been confirmed nor verified or officialized. Therefore, these are just speculations. It could be less or more, who knows really? Yet, with more than 50 million people under quarantine, it would not be surprising if the actual number of infected cases was closer to 150,000 or even 200,000 than 40,000. But there again, difficult to say.
Consequently, many people in China, Hong Kong and elsewhere in the world have lost their trust in those numbers, and believe that the numbers have been diminished to minimize the impact on the public, and that, in fact, the situation is really getting out of hands in China.
Some recent rumours and/or conspiracy theories are even talking about the burning of thousands of dead bodies in crematoriums in the region of Wuhan. But, even if the information has been debunked, it might actually be true. Let me try to explain myself.
My understanding of the whole situation in Wuhan (or let's say the whole region of Hubei) is that the reported cases (the official reported number of infected cases) are the "known" cases, meaning the people that have been/are hospitalized and have been identified and counted to be included in the official reported number of infected cases. But they only represent a part of the infected population. And it will be wrong to assume otherwise. That is the reason why we cannot see the full picture and only have a rough idea of the actual extent of the whole situation in China. That is also the reason why people in China think that there are much more infected people than the official "reported" number of cases indicates.
Understandably, as there are not enough infrastructures, doctors, nurses and other medical staffs and volunteers to welcome and take care of all of the infected people, there are surely much more cases that have been/are "unknown" and thus not "reported" and not accounted for in the official numbers. I'm thinking about the persons of 40 years old and above, presenting medical conditions and/or comorbidities, as well as the elderly and handicapped, living alone with no relatives or friends in their immediate vicinity, for example. People in these situations, as well as the people living in remote places/areas with no immediate access to hospitals, doctors or medicine, and, maybe, cannot use or don't even have a vehicle to get anywhere, are potentially more at risk than others. And if infected some of them may even die at home or outside in the street without people realizing it or caring for it. Some probably only discovered days after they died. Even more so in the areas that are under quarantine, where movements are restricted and controlled, forcing people to stay home and not being able to communicate or have contacts with others.
Think about it for a minute. It makes perfect sense. And that is probably why the rumour about the burning of thousands of dead bodies may be true after all. As days pass by, more dead bodies are probably discovered. Bodies of people who have not been reported or accounted for in the official "reported" number of infected cases. Bodies of people who died, but not only of causes directly related to the virus. They could be collateral casualties of the virus, but they could also have died of natural causes, physical exhaustion or as a result of pre-existing medical conditions. So, at this point, facing this situation, there are not many solutions. The Government and the Chinese Health Authorities have probably instructed local authorities and the army to just burn the dead bodies, whatever the cause of their death was, for sanitary reasons, to prevent anyone to get in contact with the potentially infected bodies, and thus prevent more contamination and the propagation of the virus. As awful, morally wrong and inhuman as this method can be, in such an overwhelming situation, it is probably the only thing that can be done. I let you meditate on that for a minute.
Social media acted as a catalyst for the spreading of conspiracy theories and rumours. Some of these rumours and theories are rather strange and unlikely, definitely questionable, while others appear debatable, almost reasonable and believable, even if they are unfounded and untrue. The worst of them are quite frightening, like the insinuation that the virus could have been created (man-made, genetically modified or even enhanced) as a bioweapon (or biohazard) and potentially leaked from the laboratory of virology of Wuhan, for example, coincidentally somewhat reminiscent of the "Umbrella Corporation" in the movie saga "Resident Evil" (a conspiracy theory debunked by the Washington Post, read the full article here).
The WHO has said that "internet trolls, false advice and conspiracy theories are undermining control efforts, spreading misinformation and causing an unnecessary panic".
However, as it is difficult to verify the provenance and the veracity of these "rumours" and "conspiracy theories" sources, we can only base our knowledge and data on the info provided. Consequently, no point to speculate, extrapolate or jump too hastily on false conclusions.
In any case, rest assured that whether China is hiding something, or not, we will probably never know what really happened and how this virus started in the first place, or we will discover it well after the facts (as usual). So, for now, all we know is the info we have on hands and that's all we can believe. So for now, better stick to the official version and other reliable sources of information.
What is the number of cases say about the virus?
The screenshots above and below are the official "reported" cases numbers as of today February 10th, 2020 (at 10 am GMT):
40,632 cases of Coronavirus (roughly 99% in China alone, including 70% in Wuhan)
36,256 currently infected
4,376 with outcome, including: 3,466 recovered/discharged and 910 deaths
As these numbers evolve by the day, I stated the date and time for the ones above (Feb 10 at 10 am GMT), but you can check the latest updated number of cases at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
As already stressed and stated in the previous paragraphs of the "Misinformation and rumours" above, remember that these numbers reflect only the "reported" cases. There could be dozens of thousands more "unknown" and "unreported" infected cases out there in China. And a surge of these numbers is sure to happen within the next few days as it corresponds to the end of the incubation 10-14 period (prior to showing the first symptoms) of all the people who travelled back and forth and to and from China during the Chinese New Year (CNY) holidays period (roughly from Jan 25 - Feb 8). We will see, but without being pessimistic, (just logical anticipation and common sense), I will not be surprised if it happens.
These numbers basically show that the virus is dangerous and infectious, and continues to spread exponentially, but might not be as severe or virulent as expected (in the first place) with a rather "low" fatality rate at around 2.23%. Interestingly, this rate has roughly been the same for the past few weeks (roughly oscillating between 2.05% and 2.30%). A stable and fairly constant rate which has given an excuse for the sceptics to question its veracity. At the end of the day, looking closely at these numbers, it is true that one may question the logic between a high number of contaminated people and a fairly "low" death rate? And, one may also wonder how come the number of contaminated is exponential, while the death rate is surprisingly very (too?) constant and stable?
Don't get me wrong, in both cases, it is a good thing and it is definitely better that way. I'm just pointing out the fact that there will always be some sceptics to ask themselves these kinds of questions.
On the other end, the number of recovered/discharged is somehow reassuring a little with a rate at 8.53% (on Feb 10), meaning that, although there is no cure or vaccine at present, not all people will die from the virus, which is, in my opinion, very good news. As personally, I would love to live a little longer to see my kids getting bigger and becoming adults, and, who knows, maybe even see some grandchildren (that said, if climate changes, global warming, "supposedly" natural disasters, man-made disasters, pollution, plastics, chemicals and/or other stuff don't kill us all before that... I really hope not).
Basic things you should know about the virus: Infection, Characteristics and Prevention
Here is an illustration I did:
About 2 weeks ago, while panic, hysteria and paranoia were quickly (and unavoidably) taking over people's minds, filling their thoughts with images and fear of the danger and consequences of the virus, I gathered some info on what was known then (from different medical sources) and did 2 simple illustrations (above and below) to bring awareness and prevention (as I usually like to do to illustrate my posts, except that this time I did these illustrations 2 weeks prior writing this post).
It felt important for me to do them, for my own understanding first, but also for others (if they were interested), as I realized that a lot of people around me and more especially those far away (like my family and friends in France and in the US) seemed to have difficulties to really understand what was at stake when reading the numerous articles on the subject, in the press and the social media, varying in contents depending on their country of origin but also on their political and belief views. It was even quite chaotic for me to differentiate the real information from the disinformation/misinformation. However, I think that I included the most relevant info, to make these illustrations clear and easy to read at one glance for everyone.
To recap both illustrations above, here are the main things you should know about the coronavirus:
Infection
The coronavirus is transmissible when
human fluid drops are released when coughing, sneezing, spitting, talking, shouting, yelling or even eating
on contacts with infected people (skin) or animals (dead like in a market or alive)
on contacts with surfaces were droplets may have landed (handles, bars, seats in public transports for example, as well as food or even vegetables/fruits)
after touching an infected person or surfaces, if you touch your face (mouth, nose or eyes) without having priorly washed your hands and/or used hand sanitizer
Characteristics
The coronavirus
is transmissible via released animal or human fluid drops
lives up to 3 hours on dry surfaces, and much longer on aqueous (humid) surfaces
is transmissible from animal to human (food and contact)
is transmissible from human to human (sprayed from mouth or nose and contact)
is transmissible during the 10-14 days incubation period prior to the first symptoms
Prevention
To protect yourself against the coronavirus
wear a protective face mask to protect your mouth and nose (mandatory/compulsory) N95 or N99 recommended (with valve and/or filter better apparently), more efficient if well sealed on your face
wear protective goggles and gloves (recommended especially if you need to take public transports, go to public places or work handling products like in a retail store or a supermarket)
wash your hands or use hand sanitizer prior, during and after preparing food, handling products, going to the toilet, being in public transports or places, touching people or animals
avoid touching your mouth, nose and eyes (even ears as per some sources) unless you washed your hands or used hand sanitizer priorly
avoid touching people or animal, keep your distance, try to keep eventually exposed part of your body (like hands, forearms, arms, legs and neck) away from contact with human or animal in public places (as much as you can, as it can be difficult in train or bus, especially at peak hours)
avoid crowded or confined places
avoid long-distance and/or long-period travelling period (especially in countries or region that are known to be affected
remain well hydrated, but do not share your glass or bottle with someone else
A glimmer of hope?
As per the WHO (World Health Organization), it even seems that if the situation is "stabilizing". Meaning that the virus and its propagation "may" have been partly contained and/or that the spreading is slowing down, as the number of cases seems to have stabilized in recent days (read the NY Times article here), which would be very good news and will ease the hysteria and paranoia, quite present in many countries in Asia. It will also ease the rumours, the rising xenophobia and even the racist comments, attitudes and behaviours from people in other countries toward the Chinese.
However, in reality, the news that the situation is "stabilizing" is only telling us that "the amount of infected as not risen too drastically in the last 2 days". Or, to be more accurate, let's say "not as drastically as expected after about 10-15 days of incubation period after the long weekend of Chinese New Year". CNY is one of the busiest travelling periods of the year in Asia, in general, with millions of people going back and forth to and from China. Consequently, the fear of a massive surge in the number of cases within the 10-15 days (incubation period) after CNY was rising. Yet, here we are, February 10, so roughly 15 days after CNY, and, so far, the massive increase of infected cases has not happened. The evolution of the number of cases in the next few days will tell us if, in fact, the situation is stabilizing or not.
That said, the number of cases rose a little these last 2 days. Maybe it was not a massive jump, but it was still a jump, meaning, that the increase was about 2,400 more cases in the last 24 hours. That is not what I will call "stabilizing" personally. And more cases might appear in the coming days. Consequently, better be conservative and patient and not jump too hastily to the conclusion that the spreading is "stabilizing".
Let's wait another week or two to really be sure that the Chinese New Year period did not generate much more cases. As by the time it took me to write this post up to this line, the official number of cases rose to more than 43,000 cases (compared to 40,632 cases at the beginning of the day, when I started to write this post) including a death toll now exceeding 1,000 people dead (roughly 2.32%). Yet, on a good note, it also includes more than 4,000 (roughly 9.30%) that have recovered/or have been discharged.
So, despite this slight glimmer of hope, patience is the mother of virtues. Especially when knowing that a vaccine may not be available for another 10-18 months. Consequently, it is important to stay aware and protected (see the illustration above and the list of basic things you should know for infection, characteristics and prevention details).
So, now after reading all the articles on the subject and the info and details above (gathered from various medical websites, like the WHO and Central Health Medical practice, amongst others) we can say that we know a little more about this coronavirus, but a question still remains:
With what we know now is there still a reason to panic and fear this virus?
Let's try to answer this question by putting what we know so far on the table (atop of what has already been stated in the paragraphs above), and let's try to come up with somewhat of a conclusion on whether we should continue to live in fear or not?
As stated above, there have been many successive and controversial articles on the coronavirus, some spreading rumours, conspiracy theories and fear too. Differentiating the truth from the lies, and disassociating the real information from the disinformation/misinformation can prove very challenging. And even keeping a cool head can seem like a challenge when it comes to health, more especially when facing an unknown threat and potential death. But, once again, let's not speculate, go too far or jump to hasty conclusions. Let's just start with what we know (so far) from reliable sources.
Even if we do not know everything about the mysterious Wuhan virus (or pneumonia) yet, the first reports from the experts and the W.H.O. (World Health Organization - https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus) are available online and, for the moment, do not seem so alarmist. But better be cautious.
Here are some of the most important points of these reports:
The virus has an incubation period of 7 to 14 days (8-10 days on average) during which it is transmissible, prior to the apparition of the first symptoms. Some people show the first symptoms after only 3 days, some only after a week or more. Some are even infected but showing no or barely any symptoms after nearly 2 weeks (asymptomatic), which makes this virus almost indiscernible and difficult to identify at first.
The symptoms are very similar to the flu with fever and coughing with the addition of shortness of breath, fatigue and breathing difficulties. Often leading, in the more severe cases of infection, to pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, shut down of internal organ (kidney failure) and even death.
The virulence of the virus remains to be proven, as it can rapidly contaminate a lot of people, but most people who died from it were above 40 years old, and already presented certain predispositions and/or medical conditions. Children and teens and healthy people, in general, seem to be less affected by it so far. In fact, like for any other diseases, people aged 65 and above, presenting medical conditions and with restricted or no access to doctors, hospitals and/or medicine are the most vulnerable.
It is "apparently" or "supposedly" a virus, generally found with (or originated from) animals. It has adapted to humans and is now transmissible from human to human. Yet, will it stabilize or mute within our species? Not sure. Its cousin "SARS" did not and is now eradicated. This question remains unanswered for now.
An important factor to monitor is the rate of transmission: 1 coronavirus patient can transmit the virus to 2 people, against 12 for measles for example. The exact number of cases and chains of transmission are unknown, but the transmission rate is between 1.5 and 3.5 people. If we are at the bottom of the scale, that number will completely change the scale of the epidemic.
Like in most epidemics, the transmission rate (2) and death rate (roughly 2.2%) may, or will, eventually drop over time (hopefully). So, the rapid exponential increase we witnessed over the last few weeks may stabilize, if the contamination is contained and if the virus cannot sustain or mute within the environment of the human body. Consequently, it will gradually decrease, and, hopefully, not reach the alarming number of cases we have seen in some statistic models published in the press recently.
The exact location in the lungs where the virus settles (upper or lower epithelium) is also being clarified: this location will tell us more about the mode of transmission and the stability (or not) of the virus within the human body.
In addition, the reports are stressing the fact that "proper hygiene" is the key to minimize the risk of getting infected, reduce the propagation and counter the virus over time:
Washing hands (or using hand sanitizer) prior, before and after touching skins, surfaces, animals and food (meat, vegetable, cheese, etc...) is a minimum and should be done all the time (virus or no virus).
Wear a mask to protect the mouth and the nose and part of the face from drops coming from others when they cough, sneeze or even talk.
In addition to the mask, wear protective goggles and gloves for better protection in crowded places like public places and public transports as well as at work (even home if really necessary)
Keeping your distance with others and avoiding crowded or confined places will help too (metro, trains, buses, planes, etc...)
Only go to the doctor or to the hospital if you believe that you have been in a situation you could have been contaminated/infected, otherwise, no point to go and risk getting infected by unnecessarily being in contact with infected people. (This is just common sense)
Avoid travelling for the moment
Who are the most at risk and affected by the virus?
The environmental and epidemiological situation in Wuhan is very special. The city is very dense with 11 Million inhabitants. And, like in most places in China (Asia in general), the living spaces are usually small and confined, as several family members usually inhabit the same apartment or house. People also spend a lot of their daily time in crowded places (streets, malls, restaurants, food markets and other public places), which increases the risk of infection by close contacts with others.
Social and hygienic habits are also typical and differ drastically from those of the western world. For example, in China and Hong Kong (in Asia in general), it is recommended to expel any discomforts from the body naturally and on spot. It is part of the local culture, education and way of life there, and no one sees a problem with that. Therefore, coughing, sneezing, without covering their mouth or face with their hand or arm (or a tissue), as well as belching (burping), passing gas (farting) and spitting in public are common habits and practices, which also increase the risk of infection.
Now, from what has been observed and concluded by studying the age range and the numbers of the infected cases in the Hubei province, where the virus first developed, it seems that there are only very few cases in children, teens and young adults. Therefore, the people who are the most at risk to be affected by the virus are mostly:
Patients presenting predisposition or medical conditions like co-morbidities (diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease), representing about 40% of the infected cases and more than 95% of the fatality cases
People over 40 years old, representing 72% of the cases, of which 64% are men (male smoking in China playing a role?)
People with poor health, weak or deficient immune system, some handicaps, and with limited or restricted or no access to doctors, hospitals and/or medicine due to the quarantine or other factors.
The infamous picture of the person who died in the street in Wuhan a few blocks away from a hospital (that went viral on social networks) is a perfect example of the controversial situation of the quarantine. As people are confined to their places and limited/restricted in their movements outside their apartment or house, some people (like this man) might get infected and become seriously ill (for various reasons) prior to being able to go to see a doctor and may have no other choice but to walk to the nearest hospital, risking the eventuality to die on the way (which may have happened for this man, the circumstances of his death have not been clarified, presumably a heart attack). That situation also explains the various videos posted on Chinese social media where some people are seen collapsing and injuring themselves when falling on the ground in the street. Elderly people living alone with no relatives or other people living in the vicinity to help them are potentially more at risk.
It might seem weird to you to read this, but it is true, even more so than in the everyday life when in a situation of a virus outbreak and epidemic, it's every man for himself and god for us all.
The situation outside China
So far, the virus situation and the spreading outside of China remain fairly contained and (more-less) controlled compared with the situation in Wuhan, the epicentre of the epidemic.
It is primarily due to the precautions and screenings done at the borders, immediately, as soon as people get out of the planes (and trains and buses), put in place for the last few weeks already by the authorities in most western countries. And more recently, due to the decision of immediately putting in isolation all the travellers that could have been potentially affected by the virus, and keep them there under observation during a quarantine of at least 14 days right after their arrival. Consequently minimizing the risk of propagation at the source and thus preventing them from potentially infecting other people right on arrival.
The installation of the epidemic in western countries, where the cultural and hygiene habits and practices as well as the way of living are different from those in China (or Asia in general), is also unlikely to happen the same way and to spread at the same pace and could prove to be a challenging test for the virus. So far, only a few isolated cases have been reported in most European countries and the US (and other countries), but, fortunately, no death yet. And in most cases, it seems that the patient's conditions are not too severe. Moreover, currently, the only confirmed/reported fatalities, outside of mainland China, are a Chinese man in the Philippines and a 39-year-old man in Hong Kong.
Overall and to conclude
It is important to note that roughly 11% of the known cases are considered to be severe, and 2.6% of patients die. Meaning that, although easily transmissible and highly infectious, the virus is less severe and less virulent than anticipated at the beginning. However, it is not a virus to be taken lightly as more cases appear on a daily basis and the spreading continues despite the drastic measures, precautions, screenings and controls now in place in most countries.
Yes, the WHO announced that the virus situation is "stabilizing"(and, strangely enough, some news on TV and radio (like some of the French channels I usually watch, for example) stopped talking about the coronavirus situation in the last 2-3 days, like if the virus did not matter anymore and they moved on to other subjects), but the number of infected people is still rising (nearly 5,000 more cases in the last 48 hours between Feb 10 and Feb 12).
Yet, it seems that the WHO and the Chinese Health Authorities are less worried/preoccupied than previously, as the fatality rate has been fairly constant between 2.1 to 2.5% (from the beginning), meaning that, as time goes by, this virus increasingly appears to pose a relatively low risk to most people.
In fact, it is said that it could be compared to the common flu or influenza virus but seems less deadly (so far). For comparison (in Hong Kong):
The avian flu of 1997 killed 53% of the sick
And 40% of the sick died during the H7N9 avian influenza epidemic of 2013
The influenza virus killed 90 people in Hong Kong this past January 2020 alone
While out of the 36 cases of coronavirus reported in Hong Kong, only 1 person died so far
So, why implementing such extreme measures and precautions to try to contain it?
Because it is quite transmissible, even during the 10-14 days incubation period during which it is indiscernible (the symptoms usually only appearing at the end of the incubation period) and none of us has any immunity to it. Moreover, as per the experts, a cure or a vaccine won't be available for (at least) another 10-18 months. Therefore, it is understandable that a large-scale transmission of a virus/disease with a low case-fatality rate (like this virus) will cause more cases, and ultimately more deaths overall, than a smaller scale transmission of a more virulent virus with higher case fatality rates. And thus extreme measures and precautions are needed to prevent, minimize and/or slow down its propagation on a larger scale than it already is.
That said, as in any epidemic, some cases are not necessarily known, screened or included in the official figures because the sick patients are not hospitalized, and therefore are not counted or reported. However, even if the figures are not completely reliable, they usually reflect the number of reported cases and give a certain idea of the extent of the situation. That is the reason why the number of officially reported cases is about 45,000 (Feb 12), while people in China think that unofficially the total number of infected cases might actually be as high as 200,000 cases under surveillance and potentially at risk or already infected, which could explain the drastic measures and precautions implemented in China.
Therefore, from a global public health point of view, this IS an emergency. And despite its apparent "low" mortality rate, this virus is still spreading, and the number of infected cases and death toll are still rising by the day.
Countries with a good healthcare system and proper infrastructures, as well as those where most people are healthy and have good hygiene habits might experience fewer contaminations and casualties, as most infected people would be put in isolation, into quarantine, and most likely have a flu-like illness and then recover (hopefully).
While, on the other end, countries with weaker healthcare systems and infrastructures, as well as those where people are in general less healthy (due to various environmental, economical, political and financial reasons/factors) and/or have cultural bad hygiene habits could be completely overwhelmed by such an event, and more people might develop pneumonia, kidney failure or even death.
At both ends of the spectrum, the major issue for most people is the inconvenience and unpleasantness of all the social distancing measures in place (stay home, avoid crowded places, refrain from visiting relatives or friends, refrain or avoid travelling, etc...). These measures of reclusion and isolation to prevent from being in contact with potentially infected people and/or spreading the virus, won’t be forever, but they aren’t much fun. In the long run, they can have mental health consequences. Anxiety, stress and even paranoia are running high in the Hong Kong community (and elsewhere), with some effects such as the recent panic and urge to buy masks, toilet paper and rice (for example).
So, to finish this post by answering the question "Is there still a reason to panic and fear this virus?"I will say YES! For as long as the virus has not been contained, a vaccine has not been made available and the full extent of the situation in China isn't known. Better be prudent and stay safe for now.
More especially when realizing that the number of cases jumped from 40,632 cases including 910 death cases on Feb 10 at 10 GMT, to 45,171 cases including 1,115 death cases on Feb 12 at 7.21 GMT. That's a staggering jump of 4,539 cases in roughly 48 hours including 205 additional death cases. Which kind of make me question why the WHO is saying the situation is "stabilizing"? As, just by looking at those numbers, it does not seem to be the case... (just saying)... - sigh -
Feb 13
Now, I do not want to be alarmist, but last night when I finished writing this post (Feb 12) the number of cases was still as above, 45,171. And this morning, with no intention to update this post every day but just by pure curiosity, I just wanted to have a look at the numbers this morning (Feb 13), and this what I saw:
In the last 18 hours, the number of cases jumped from 45,171 (FEB 12 at 7.21 GMT) to 60,280 (FEB 13 at 1.30 GMT), that's an additional 15,109 cases. That's huge! And, unfortunately, it confirms my thoughts and the fear I had that the numbers will suddenly increase by the end of the 10-14 days incubation period right after the Chinese New Year holidays (Jan 25 to Feb 8). It was not rocket-science to anticipate that it will happen, just plain and simple logic. Yet, and once again, it makes me question why WHO did not anticipate it? Moreover, it totally contradicts their announcement of 2 days ago that the situation was "stabilizing".
As I already said previously, above in this post, when I started to write it on Feb 10, better wait and see instead of jumping to the conclusion that the situation is "supposedly" stabilizing, as, obviously, it is not! This sudden surge proves that WHO was wrong to believe it was and, obviously, they did not anticipate this sudden increase.
The virus has been renamed "Covid-19", and has been designated as "SARS-CoV-2" by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses.
As of yesterday, many articles were insinuating the peak of the virus had passed. An assumption probably formulated after the announcement made by WHO about the situation stabilizing. Yet, I'm sure WHO and the press will revise their position and judgement after the jump of 15,019 additional cases today.
In my opinion, the situation is far from being "stabilized" and we haven't seen the peak of the virus yet. In fact, I believe that it is still way too early in this epidemic to announce, predict or assume anything, as, (and I cannot repeat it enough), numbers are rising by the day and we still don't have the full picture of the real extent of the situation in China. So, better adopt a patient, prudent and careful attitude and not rejoice too early or misjudge the gravity of this coronavirus situation.
We will see. And time will tell.
Few hours after I wrote these very last lines, WHO realized their mistake and changed their mind (as I anticipated they will) by saying (like me) "Way too early" to predict the end of COVID-19 coronavirus says WHO as reported cases surge (read the Euronews article here). Not very serious for such an organization as the WHO to say something one day and say the opposite two days later, more especially when it was easily predictable.
(Note to myself en aparté: I should definitely try to write for a newspaper and get paid for it, instead of writing on my own blog for free 😁 )
Meanwhile, protect yourself, stay safe, try to stay positive and keep it all into perspective. Keep calm and wash your hands and carry on, as life must go on!
Take good care of yourself!
Domelgabor (a.k.a. The courteous stickman) & DBSN for the illustrations
Post written and edited by between Feb 10 and Feb 12, 2020, with the last part added on Feb 13.
NB: some texts taken or partly taken courtesy from various sources.
Main sources:
WHO (World Health Organisation)
Worldometers (numbers and statistics)
Central Health Medical Practice (Hong Kong)
The New England Journal of Medicine
The New York Times